Using Seasonal Forecast as an Adaptation Strategy: Gender Differential Impact on Yield and Income in Senegal

Abstract

The use of seasonal forecast has been demonstrated as a good option to reduce the effects
of climate variability in sub-Saharan African countries. However, its use, benefits and interests may
be different depending on gender. This paper aims at analyzing the gender differential impact of
the use of seasonal forecast on the main crop yields (rice, maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut)
and farm income in Senegal. We collected data from 1481 farmers (44% women) in four regions
of Senegal. We applied the counterfactual outcomes framework of modern evaluation theory to
estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) of the use of the seasonal forecast on crop yield
and farm income. The results showed a significant impact of the use of the seasonal forecast (SF) in
the main crop yields and the agricultural income for farmers in Senegal. This impact varies according
to the sex and the type of the crops. The users (men and women) of the seasonal forecast gained
on average 158 kg/ha and 140 kg/ha more yield than the non-users, respectively, for millet and rice
crops. The impact of the use of SF is greater for men on millet (202.7 kg/ha vs. 16.7 kg/ha) and rice
(321.33 kg/ha vs. −25.3 kg/ha). However, it is greater for women on maize (210 kg/ha vs. −105 kg/ha).
Potential users of seasonal forecast had also a positive and significant impact of 41$ per ha on the
income. The additional income is more important for men (56$) than women (11$). These findings
suggest that the use of seasonal forecast increases the productivity of rural communities and affects
men and women differently. The access to and use of SF should therefore be widely promoted among
farmers’ organizations; women’s associations should be particularly targeted.