Challenges in providing and applying multi-model climate scenarios for climate change adaptation. Policy Brief, November 2011

Abstract

Decision-makers need information from climate change models to make adaptation planning decisions. Current understanding of climate change is that there are varying levels of confidence in how different climate variables will be affected, therefore it is unwise to base decisions on the output of a single model, as it is unclear which model is best at predicting the future climate. Decision-makers need to take account of the wider range of plausible future climates indicated by a number of climate models - the multi-model approach. They often also require information at a higher resolution than that provided by global climate models. High resolution models can involve significant effort. The Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) project has adopted a novel approach which produces the necessary higher resolution information, but with fewer resources. This briefing discusses the use within ACCC of a multi-model approach, and the implications of this approach for assessing impact and vulnerability, and for planning adaptations