Impacts of the war in Ukraine on Malawi

Abstract

Although geographically distant, there are multiple channels through which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can affect the lives of Malawians. Before the invasion, Russia’s and Ukraine’s exports accounted for about 12% of total calories (Glauber and Laborde, 2022) traded in the world, and the two countries were among the top five global exporters for many important cereals and oilseeds, including wheat, barley, sunflowers and maize (Figure 1). Ukraine is also an important source of sunflower seed oil, supplying about 50% of the global market. These exports have now largely seized as a result of war-related disruptions to production and logistics as well as economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus, its ally. This shock reduction of supply is driving up food commodity prices worldwide and will continue to do so while the current situation persists. The ongoing fighting has already disrupted the planting of barley and will soon disrupt the planting of maize, wheat, and oilseeds. The choke on global supply will thus continue for months (if not years) to come.