Sub-Saharan African Cities: A five-City Network to Pioneer Climate Adaptation through Participatory Research & Local Action. Climate Change Projections for Dar es Salaam: Adding value through downscaling

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have severe physical, social, environmental and economic impacts on cities worldwide, both directly and indirectly. Although there are some uncertainties surrounding the understanding of earth’s complex systems, there is strong evidence in current literature and climatic measurements to demonstrate that, as a result of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric, land and sea surface temperatures are rising. Global model projections have demonstrated that temperature and rainfall changes throughout Africa, increased frequency of storms and sea-level rise in sub-tropical Oceans, will expose current vulnerabilities of coastal (and other) cities, whilst also potentially heightening risks associated with food security and water resources. This report will outline impacts and vulnerabilities that the available model results typically imply for Dar es Salaam, as well as discuss constraints given the paucity of available climatological data and the limitations of the current methods