Abatement cost curves relating past greenhouse gas emissions to the economic gains they allowed. Project Report

Abstract

Abatement curves summarize the costs that are involved in reduc tion of pollution, in this case net greenhouse gas em issions 1 , based on the volume of various types of emissions and the expected cost per unit emission reduction. Such representations support policy development, identifying an initial focus on the low - cost high - volume emission categories. Four approaches ar e described and compared to do such analysis for tropical forest margins in the context of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) degradation. The four methods, of increasing complexity and costs of data collection are appropriate in different steps along the pathway to negotiated agreements that can meet ‘Free and Prior Informed Consent’ standards, while reducing overall transaction costs by early warnings for cases that are unlikely to lead to mutually beneficial agreements. In early screening of potential cases, a comparison of profitability and time - averaged carbon stock of the different landuse options within an area can be used to confirm that there are no high C stock + high profitability land uses (if there are the question shifts to why these are not universally adopted) and that there generally is a tradeoff. The presence of low C stock + low profitability land uses, can direct the focus on prevention of degradation and possibilities of win+win restoration. For a Project Information Note (PIN) this may give sufficient initial clues. In landscapes where tradeoffs are confirmed, a further quantification and spatial study of the emission pattern can use pixel - level ratios of change in C stock and profitab ility as basis for C price esti mates (‘OpCost curves’) . Such curves give an indication of baseline emissions and the opportunity for economic incentives to shift away from emissions that yielded low benefits in terms of profitability increases in land use. Such information can inform Project Design Documents (PDD). For further negotiations of contracts, forward looking landscape scenarios can further support the negotiations, as they can help define the bottom - line levels of alternative livelihood provisions that will be needed to make low C e mission scenarios equivalent in terms of local economy to high C stock emission business as usual scenarios. Finally, further detail on the scenarios by inclusion of agent - based variation in resources and preferences may add further detail, but for this cl ass of methods further tests are needed to judge their predictive value and relevance in the negotiation processes