A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study

Abstract

Successful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. This work was supported by the ‘Innovative Methods and Metrics for Agriculture and Nutrition Actions (IMMANA) programme and funded by UK Department for International Development