Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to developnational policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessmentfor Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reformsare being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to supportresilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identificationof feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.