A Healthy, Inclusive, and Sustainable Food Systems Approach for India

Abstract

The urgency of India’s food system transformation is more pronounced than ever. Despite high economic growth and rising per capita incomes, approximately 194 million people in India remain undernourished and there is a high prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, particularly among women and children under 5 years. Agri-food systems in India employ more than 50% of the workforce and engage nearly 82% of smallholder farmers. Therefore, ensuring inclusive growth and reduced poverty necessitates new and enhanced livelihood and employment opportunities in the agri-food sector. We use an integrated suite of models to create macro policy scenarios for India until 2050. These scenarios are centered around equitable livelihoods by ensuring minimum wages for agricultural labor, and inclusive development through reduction in income inequalities and wage gaps. Our results suggest that multiple livelihood-enhancing measures, such as minimum wages and capital investments, when combined, have a weakening effect on inclusion outcomes. Employment levels significantly decline, affecting 19 million people. This has higher negative effects on women whose agricultural employment has been found to reduce disproportionately with increased capital investments. However, livelihoods improve from higher wages and lower economic costs of production. Transformative actions encouraging agricultural labor engagements can potentially increase the share of labor requirements to 73.5% by 2050, compared to 67% in the baseline, thereby enhancing employment opportunities for nine million individuals. Our integrated Food Systems Development Pathway, which integrates multidimensional policy measures, reports strong trade-offs with the goals of inclusion as the largest decline in employment is observed in this scenario following an increase in wages and labor productivity