Heat shocks, maize yields, and child height in Tanzania

Abstract

The growing threat that climate shocks pose to food, water and nutrition security makes understanding the linkages between climate and nutrition increasingly urgent. The article demonstrates an empirical connection between rising temperatures, cereal yields, and poorer growth outcomes for children—the first time such a link has been established between climate shocks, agricultural productivity, and health. The authors find that extreme temperature shocks can severely reduce maize yields, and that lower yields in the season prior to birth are a strong predictor of reduced height in later years, especially among boys. They also show that lower maize yields are predictive of lower body mass among women but not predictive of diarrhea or fever incidence in children. Taken together, these results suggest that maternal malnutrition during pregnancy is a key pathway linking heat shocks and agricultural production to subsequent child health. The findings have important implications for policymakers responding to climate impacts, who must weigh whether to focus more on agricultural interventions and social protection or on public health interventions. Our research suggests the first approach could be particularly important in rural Africa.