How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Zambia? Climate security pathway analysis

Abstract

Zambia has historically qualified as a regional model of stability and peace. However, this status is being undermined by several socio-political factors, including deeply entrenched patterns of social inequality and gender discrimination, high levels of poverty and youth unemployment, as well as recurring episodes of electoral violence. Climate and extreme weather events compound most of these vulnerabilities and even create new ones, generating societal dynamics that will likely increase social tensions with greater risk of insecurity. This factsheet applies an impact pathway analysis sets out to shed light on the possible ways through which climate and social changes interact and reinforce each other to negatively affect peace and security outcomes, such as social and risk of social instability.