Hunger Safety Net Programme Impact Evaluation 2010-2011: First Follow-up Round (Kenya)

Abstract

The Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) is a social protection project being conducted in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of northern Kenya. The pilot phase has now concluded and the HSNP is beginning to scale up under Phase 2. The ASALs are extremely food-insecure areas highly prone to drought, which have experienced recurrent food crises and food aid responses for decades. The HSNP is intended to reduce dependency on emergency food aid by sustainably strengthening livelihoods through cash transfers.

Oxford Policy Management was responsible for the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the programme under the pilot phase, with the intention of informing programme scale-up as well as the government’s social protection strategy more generally. The M&E involved a large-scale rigorous community-randomised controlled impact evaluation household survey, assessment of targeting performance of three alternative targeting mechanisms (Social Pension; Dependency Ratio; Community-based Targeting), qualitative research (interviews and focus group discussions) to assess targeting and impact issues less easily captured in the quantitative survey, and on-going operational and payments monitoring to ensure the smooth implementation of the programme. Findings were communicated to the HSNP Secretariat, Government of Kenya and the Department for International Development (DFID) on a regular basis to inform and advise on policy revisions and development. The M&E component used the data it produced to advise the design of HSNP Phase 2, including micro-simulations of different programme targeting scenarios and review of the phase 2 targeting approach which combines proxy means testing with community-based targeting.

The impact evaluation study compares the situation of HSNP and control households at the time of their selection into the programme (baseline), with their situation 12 months (year 1 follow-up) and 24 months later (year 2 follow-up). Over this 24-month period most of the HSNP households covered by the evaluation had received 11 or 12 bi-monthly transfers (initially KES 2,150, increased to KES 3,500 by the end of the evaluation period).

Fieldwork for the first follow-up survey was conducted in 48 sub-locations, stratified by greater district (Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir), by HSNP status (treatment and control), and by targeting mechanism (Social Pension; Dependency Ratio; Community-based Targeting). The survey covered 4,637 households and 245 communities.

The baseline data collection was completed in November 2010, the first round of follow-up data collection finished in November 2011, and the final round of fieldwork - in November 2012.