Hunger Safety Net Programme Survey 2016: Phase 2 (Kenya)

Abstract

The Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) is a social protection project being conducted in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of northern Kenya. The ASALs are extremely food-insecure areas highly prone to drought, which have experienced recurrent food crises and food aid responses for decades. The HSNP is intended to reduce dependency on emergency food aid by sustainably strengthening livelihoods through cash transfers. The pilot phase ran from 2009 to 2013. The second phase has been launched in July 2013 and contracted to run until March 2018. Oxford Policy Management (OPM) was responsible for the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the programme under the pilot phase, as well as the second phase of implementation.

Within the impact evaluation component for Phase 2, OPM used a range of analytical methods within an overarching mixed-method approach. The quantitative impact evaluation of HSNP Phase 2 compares the situation of HSNP2 beneficiaries and control households, relying on the Regression Discountinuity approach, integrated by a targeted Propensity Score Matching approach. In addition to the analysis at the household level, a Local Economy-Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) was conducted to investigate the impact of the HSNP2 on the local economy, including on the production activities of both beneficiary and non-beneficiary households.

A single round of data collection based on a household and business survey underpins the household quantitative impact evaluation and the LEWIE study. The objective of the survey is to collect household and business data to provide an assessment of the programme's impact on the local economy, as well as beneficiary households.

The household survey is a survey of 5,979 people, carried out between 13 February and 29 June 2016 in 187 sub-locations across the four counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir. The survey covered modules on household demographic characteristics, livestock, assets, land, transfers, food and non-food consumption, food security, saving and borrowing, jobs, business, livestock trading and subjective poverty.

In addition to the household survey, a business questionnaire was conducted in the three main commercial hubs of each county. Overall, 282 business questionnaires were administered in the four counties. The purpose of the survey was to learn more about local economic activities and livelihoods in the HSNP counties, and the data was used for the LEWIE analysis. The aim was to capture information on three main sectors of the local economy:
- Retailing - shops that sell retail goods on which a price mark-up is applied;
- Services;
- Producers - businesses that transform inputs into outputs.

Lastly, since livestock trading is a very important activity in the HSNP counties, livestock traders have been interviewed to understand better how the market works. In each county, three main livestock markets were targeted for interviews.