IMPACT Projections of per Capita Food Consumption (KG per Capita per Year) With and Without Climate Change: Extended Commodity-Level Results for 2022 GFPR Table 2B

Abstract

Policy makers, analysts, and civil society face increasing challenges to reducing hunger and sustainably improving food security. Modeling alternative future scenarios
and assessing their outcomes can help inform policy choices. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is an integrated system of linked economic, climate, water, and crop models that allows for the exploration of such scenarios.
</p>The IMPACT model was used to evaluate impacts of climate
change on aggregate food production, food consumption
(kcal per person per day), net trade of major food commodity groups, and the population at risk of hunger. At IMPACT’s
core is a partial equilibrium, multimarket economic model
that simulates national and international agricultural markets. Links to climate, water, and crop models support the integrated study of changing environmental, biophysical,
and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis of a variety of critical issues of interest to policymakers at national, regional, and global levels. IMPACT benefits
from close interactions with scientists across CGIAR and
other leading global economic modeling efforts around the
world through the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and
Improvement Project (AgMIP).
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This dataset summarizes results from the latest
IMPACT projections to 2030 and 2050, for a scenario that
includes the impacts of climate change and a “baseline”
scenario that assumes no climate change (for comparison). These results update previous projections by showing
aggregations to six regions: Central and West Asia and
North Africa; Eastern and Southern Africa; Latin America
and the Caribbean; South Asia; Southeast Asia; West and
Central Africa; and the rest of the world.