Modelling Food Grain Production in Perspective of Climate Change

Abstract

In the present paper, time series data on rainfall, fertilizer consumption and food grain production have been analyzed and studied and food grain production have been modelled using structural time series modelling. It was found that both monsoon as well as annual rainfall was not following uniform distribution. Also, a decreasing trend in fertilizer response was observed. The structural time series model was fitted and the food grain production was forecasted using the fitted model. It was forecasted that in 2016, the total food grain production will be 266.66 million tones with 95 % confidence interval (244.99-288.33)