Modelling the links between transport, air quality and COVID-19 spread using naturalistic data from Dhaka and Bangladesh

Abstract

Transport clearly has a large role in spreading contagious diseases such as COVID-19. Standard response to fighting COVID-19 in most countries was to impose a lockdown – including on the transport sector – to slow down the spread. Often various such measures were taken at different times, but their relative impacts are not well quantified, especially in low-income countries. This motivates this study to assess the interactions between policy interventions, and transport, air quality and COVID-19 impacts in Bangladesh. Using aggregate time-series models, the relative contribution of different policies on mobility outcome and disease spread are estimated. The outcomes of the project are especially useful in understanding the differential impacts of different policy measures on transport, air quality and COVID-19 spread, and can help evidence based decision making to combat next waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics. This is an output of the High Volume Transport Applied Research Programme