Participatory scenario development on the future of maize - mixed systems in East and Southern Africa

Abstract

Recognizing the escalating pressures on the maize-mixed farming system in East and Southern Africa (ESA), the CGIAR Initiative on Diversification in East and Southern Africa convened a Regional Participatory Scenario Development Workshop through the collaborative efforts of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and its partners the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This strategic initiative brought together key stakeholders to cocreate plausible future scenarios, exploring pathways towards a more diversified and resilient agricultural landscape.

The workshop facilitated a multi-stakeholder dialogue, acknowledging the multifaceted challenges facing the region. Participants identified a range of predictable trends, including socio-economic shifts, evolving environmental governance, technological advancements, and changing dietary patterns. Critically, the discussions moved beyond simply recognizing these trends to identifying key uncertainties that could profoundly reshape the future of the maize-mixed system.

Through a dynamic group process, stakeholders developed detailed narratives for each scenario, weaving together potential future contexts shaped by climate change, technological innovation, policy decisions, economic forces, and societal values as well as other factors that shape the food systems as outlined in (Matchaya et al., 2023). IFPRI enriched these narratives by modeling the potential consequences of various choices and decisions within each scenario, providing valuable quantitative insights.

The outputs of this scenario development process will form part of the comprehensive State of Region Report and a targeted Policy Brief. These publications will serve as crucial tools for raising awareness and stimulating dialogue among policymakers, decision-makers, and stakeholders across the ESA region. By providing a robust, evidence-based foundation for understanding potential future pathways, this initiative empowers stakeholders to develop proactive and adaptive strategies, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable and food-secure future for the region.