Projected climate change and impact on bioclimatic conditions in Central and South-Central Asia

Abstract

This report summarizes the current and future projected status of a set of bioclimatic indicators and the expected impacts of climate change on bioclimatic conditions in central and south-central Asia. It is intended to provide a basis for understanding the potential impacts of climate change across central and south-central Asia and a knowledge base for the design and implementation of agroforestry practices, environmental conservation efforts, and sustainable development. Under all scenarios, our spatial analysis indicates quick and drastic change in bioclimatic conditions in the near to medium term, and predicts significant and increasing biophysical and biological perturbation for biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem services, and agricultural and pastoral production systems. The major conclusion to be drawn from this report is the overriding necessity to recognize the now central role of a rapidly changing climate and environment across central and south-central Asia, and the need to plan for adaptation within almost all aspects of sustainable development and conservation planning, efforts and policy