Regional trade flows and resilience in COMESA and ECOWAS countries

Abstract

The production landscape and its characteristics influence the relationship between trade, biophysical conditions, and climate variability. Agricultural production directly affects the level of potential output that can be exported and is indirectly (and inversely) correlated with the level of imports, given the substitution effect between internally produced and externally procured goods to maintain a steady level of internal consumption. Production characteristics and conditions are extremely heterogeneous across SSA, indicating spatial variability in production. Moreover, local natural conditions are strongly correlated with the ability of households to adapt to or manage shocks, that is, their “resilience.”