Dataset / Geospatial

Replication Data for: Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation

author(s) Schroth, Götz - Läderach, Peter - Martinez Valle, Armando - Bunn, Christian - Jassogne, Laurence
from International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
permalink open
themes
regions
  • Western Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Africa
  • World
  • Middle Africa
citation

Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez Valle, Armando; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence, 2016, "Replication Data for: Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5W7LGW, Harvard Dataverse, V1

Publications and datasets provided via GARDIAN

Abstract

We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation.

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