Sub-global scenarios

Abstract

Scenarios involve thinking about a wide range of futures, including both well-known trends and uncertainties. Developing scenarios is a fundamental prerequisite of strategic thinking and planning. Scenarios facilitate strategy for- mulation and evaluation, improve understanding of the uncertainties inherent in ecosystems, and test the robustness of particular strategies against a set of plausible futures. Unlike other decision-making techniques such as prediction, forecasting, and other single future outlooks, scenario-building is a cognitive and imaginative mechanism for decision-making. It uses more holistic, inte- grated, and participatory approaches to aid understanding of the intrinsic heter- ogeneity and uncertainty of ecosystem management. It also extends prediction and forecasting methods to provide additional and relevant alternatives to help decision-makers think, talk, plan and act imaginatively in pursuit of a more sustainable society. Sub-global assessments used scenarios for multiple purposes, which often extended beyond the rationale for scenarios developed at the global level. Besides being used as a tool for decision-makers to plan for the future, many sub-global assessments, such as Southern Africa and the North- ern Highland Lakes District of Wisconsin, also used scenarios as a means for communicating possible future changes and major uncertainties to stakehold- ers. In the assessments of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile, and Bajo Chirripo ? , Costa Rica, scenarios also have proved to be an important tool for acquiring data about stakeholder preferences, perceptions, and values. In a few cases, including Wisconsin, Caribbean Sea, and SAfMA, scenarios had a role in de- fining the boundaries within which discussions about management and policy options relevant to ecosystem services and human well-being could be held