Tajikistan: Stability First

Abstract

Tajikistan emerged from civil war as stable, but not democratic. It is a mimicry of democracy, where the regime maintains a firm grip on power behind an institutional façade and bases legitimacy on security provision. A power-sharing agreement ended the war, with predatory-driven opposition actors agreeing to authoritarian peace in exchange for access to state assets. After the peace deal, Russian intervention was disjointed from that of Western donors who chose not to work with Moscow. This deprived Westerners of leverage and unleashed geopolitical rivalries. Few resources, limited understanding of the context, and conflicting objectives led to reduced international influence