Trends in Conflict and Stability in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

This report looks at trends in conflict and instability in the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on climate change effects and a number of civil liberties. The Indo-Pacific region is both highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and already facing significant security risks and challenges, many of which will be exacerbated by the impact of climate change. There are notable increases in resource-based conflicts, migration-induced violence, and armed insurgencies. The countries reviewed all show worrying trends in terms of erosion of freedom of expression, media freedom, freedom of belief, and civil society freedom. The situation in Bangladesh and India is particularly serious and is already fuelling violence and conflict. The two themes on which the Emerging Issues Report (EIR) focuses are (i) climate change and (ii) guarding civil space and including all voices. The EIR examines these two themes in five Indo-Pacific countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. These were chosen to give a broad range of situations and challenges/risks from the region. Note that this EIR is confined to an assessment of conflict risks and does not examine measures being taken by the government or others to address these. This report was prepared for the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and its partners in support of pro-poor programmes