Vulnerability and adaptation of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid Tanzania

Abstract

A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Tabora Region in Tanzania was conducted in 2009. Four village clusters were selected out of which, three villages represent Millennium Villages Program (MVP) namely Mbola, Mpenge and Isila from Uyui District. One village namely Tumbi from Tabora Urban bordering the MVP was also selected. Both primary and secondary data were collected using different methods including structured questionnaire interviews, focus group discussion, documentary review and field observations. Structured questionnaire interviews were administered to 7% of all farmers selected at random from the four villages and 30 research and extension officers obtained through accidental purposeful sampling. Simple regression and t-test analyses of numeric data for rainfall and temperature collected over the last 35 growing seasons were performed using Microsoft Excel and Statistical Analysis System respectively. Non-numeric data were coded, summarized and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences spreadsheet. Results indicate that the overall rainfall amount was found to decline while distribution was varying both in time and space. Inter-seasonal dry spells between January and February appeared to increase both in duration and frequency. Temperature has shown an increasing trend. Minimum temperature increased faster (R2 = 0.68, p